Retail sales numbers suggest that the fall in the American economy may be slowing down and reaching a bottom. The numbers are based on a monthly advance sample survey of some 5000 stores out of a population of more than 3 million and hence have to be interpreted carefully because of the 90 % confidence interval and high margin of error .
But they may well be the first signs of better days ahead for the American economy.According to the survey conducted by the Departrment of Commerce's bureau of the census retail sales in February 2009 were down only 0.1 % from sales in January and 8.6 % from sales in February 2008. If we stripped out motor vehicles and parts from the numbers sales were actually up by over 3 %.
Vehicles and parts sales are down by 23.5 % from a year ago. Also because of the slump in the housing sector which is the original source of all the trouble home furnishings and furniture sales are down by 10.7 % from a year ago and building materials and garden supplies sales are also down by 10.3 % from a year ago. Ditto for department strore sales down by 5.4 %.
Electronic stores interestingly are down by only 1.4 % suggesting that the young who make up a large share of this sector are reslient consumers with unsatiated appetites for more.
So the results of the survey if they are sustained in next month's report are definitely a promising sign of the beginnings of recovery. Lets hope so.
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