June 10, 2009
The latest data released from Statistics Canada show that Canada's merchandise exports have fallen by 5.1% in April. Most of the fall is due to the fall in the prices of goods exported. This suggests that we are still in a disinflationary environment and it should translate into a slower appreciation of the Canadian dollar against the off setting pressure of rising oil prices or a weakening US dollar.It also suggests since 88 % of the decline in Canadian exports is in our exports to the US that Canada is still very dependent upon a US recovery. The Statistics Canada report follows below courtesy of the agency.
(Meanwhile in Britain one of the leading economic think tanks NIESR, the National institute for Economic and Social Research is reporting, according to the Guardian, that industrial production in the U.K. has bottomed in March and for the past two months has been in slightly positive terrain suggesting that the recession which began in Britain in summer 2008 is now ending.This may well be true but we require more data to confirm this in the coming months.)
Statistics Canada Report
April 2009 (Previous release)
Canada's merchandise exports fell 5.1% to $30.8 billion in April, mostly due to a 3.2% reduction in prices while volumes decreased 1.9%.
Lower exports of industrial goods and materials, energy products, and machinery and equipment largely accounted for the decrease in overall exports. Gains in agricultural and fishing products, and automotive products partially offset the decline.
Imports decreased 1.5% to $31.0 billion, mainly a result of declines in industrial goods and materials as well as machinery and equipment. Import prices were down 1.8% while volumes edged up 0.3%.
Exports and imports have generally been trending downwards since the peak of July 2008. Exports have fallen $13.6 billion or 30.6% since July 2008, with more than 80% of the decline occurring from November 2008 to January 2009. In comparison, imports have declined $8.5 billion or 21.6% since July 2008, with almost 70% of the decrease occurring in December 2008 and January 2009.
In April, Canada posted a small trade deficit with the world of $179 million following a surplus of $1.0 billion in March.
Note to readers
Merchandise trade is one component of the current account of Canada's balance of payments, which also includes trade in services, investment income, transfers, capital and financial flows.
International merchandise trade data by country are available on both a balance of payments and a customs basis for the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom. Trade data for all other individual countries are available on a customs basis only. Balance of payments data are derived from customs data by making adjustments for characteristics such as valuation, coverage, timing and residency. These adjustments are made to conform to the concepts and definitions of the Canadian System of National Accounts.
Constant dollars referred to in the text are calculated using the Laspeyres volume formula which is current dollars divided by Paasche indexes.
In general, merchandise trade data are revised on an ongoing basis for each month of the current year. Current and previous year revisions are reflected in both the customs and balance of payments based data. Revisions to customs based data for the previous year are also released on a quarterly basis. Revisions to balance of payments based data for the four previous years are included with today's release.
Factors influencing revisions include late receipt of import and export documentation, incorrect information on customs forms, replacement of estimates with actual figures, changes in classification of merchandise based on more current information and changes to seasonal adjustment factors.
Revised data are available in the appropriate CANSIM tables.
Canada's trade surplus with the United States shrank from $3.5 billion in March to $2.8 billion in April, as exports (-4.4%) and imports (-1.7%) both declined. Since July 2008, exports to the United States have accounted for 88% of the decrease in Canada's exports to the world. Accordingly, the United States share of Canada's exports was 72.3% in April 2009, down from 77.0% in July 2008.
The trade deficit with countries other than the United States widened from $2.4 billion in March to $3.0 billion in April, as exports fell 6.9% and imports were down 1.0%. After a solid gain in March, exports to the European Union fell 16.6% and led the decrease in exports to countries other than the United States.
Most export sectors decline
Exports of industrial goods and materials fell 9.7% to $6.3 billion, the lowest level since March 2004, mainly the result of volume reductions. Lower exports of precious metals, notably gold, and fertilizers were the main contributors to the decline in this sector. Exports of steel and aluminum products also declined in April, as a result of weak global demand for these products.
Exports of energy products contracted 8.7% to $6.1 billion as prices and volumes declined. Exports of natural gas decreased 14.9% due to lower industrial demand and high inventory levels in North America. Natural gas exports have been on a downward trend since July 2008. Crude petroleum exports declined 4.8% to $3.1 billion, while petroleum and coal products decreased 12.0% to $1.0 billion.
Machinery and equipment exports were down 7.0% to $7.1 billion, as volume reductions dominated the decrease in exports across most categories in this sector.
Exports of agricultural and fishing products rose 5.1%, moderating the overall decline in exports. Higher exports of canola and wheat largely accounted for the gains.
Industrial goods and materials drag imports down
Imports of industrial goods and materials declined 8.4% to $6.1 billion, the lowest level since April 2004. Metals and metal ores, which led the decline, registered a fourth consecutive decrease. The slowdown in the automotive industry and in drilling activities has reduced the demand for iron and steel products. Lower imports of chemicals and plastics also contributed to the decline. A combination of lower prices and volumes accounted for the decrease in imports of industrial goods and materials.
Machinery and equipment imports decreased 3.3% to $9.3 billion, as a result of widespread declines reflecting lower prices. This sector has been trending downward since November 2008, with the sharpest declines in December 2008 and January 2009.
Imports of energy products rose 11.9%, partially offsetting the decline in overall imports, as prices and volumes increased in April. Crude petroleum imports, which had been generally trending downwards since July 2008, increased 24.0% to $1.7 billion in April.
Available on CANSIM: tables 228-0001 to 228-0003, 228-0033, 228-0034, 228-0041 to 228-0043 and 228-0047 to 228-0057.
Definitions, data sources and methods: survey numbers, including related surveys, 2201, 2202 and 2203.
The April 2009 issue of Canadian International Merchandise Trade, Vol. 63, no. 4 (65-001-X, free), will soon be available.
Current account data (which incorporate merchandise trade statistics, service transactions, investment income and transfers) are available quarterly in Canada's Balance of International Payments (67-001-X, free).
For more information, contact Sharon Nevins (toll-free 1-800-294-5583; 613-951-9798). To enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Mychèle Gagnon (613-951-0994), International Trade Division.
No comments:
Post a Comment