Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Keynesian revival ends year on upturn

December 28, 2009

I have been digging myself out from under grading a mountain of exams and essays as well as some snow and also enjoying the holiday season. This most extraordinary year is now drawing to a close. On the economic front the near catastrophe that was unveiled in 2008 has now been stopped and the reversal back to economic growth and falling unemployment is now either underway or about to materialize in most of the global economy. Stock markets continue to rise overall although considerable nervousness remains. Job losses have slowed dramatically and retail sales show signs of improving. Tarp monies have substantially been repaid and some cautious optimism is returning.None of this would have been possible if governments world wide had not rediscovered the clear virtues of Keynesian economics. His return to prominence was long overdue.The global meltdown and panic that ensued created the right circumstances for the return of his ideas in a way that he would have found deeply gratifying after so many years of foolish neglect by most but not all of the economics profession.
Neo-con and neo-liberal politicians are now either silent or actively rooting for a continued slump to rescue their ideological baggage from the rubbbish heap to which the crash consigned them.Fiscal conservatives are still plentiful but their damaging advice on balanced budgets at all times is now less influential.

Of course, not all of these neo-con ideas were totally wrong. Bureaucracy and arbitrary rule are still problems . The state must be counterweighed by responsible market actors wherever possible. Entrepreneurship and innovation are important.Human rights and individual liberty are still important values. But the extreme ideology of laissez-faire has been correctly discarded for the balanced middle way that respects both markets and human dignity, security and stability as well as growth and prosperity.

We shall see what the new year brings but for the moment things are much better than they were 12 months ago. I expect them to continue to improve.

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