Thursday, February 3, 2011

The lessons of history Egypt 2011 .

These are momentous days in Egypt. A major centre of civilization for 7000 years it is once again at the centre of turbulent events and the Zeitgeist of history which as always yearns for freedom and enlightenment. It is always an error of realpolitik  for democracies to base their plans for the future on alliances with dictatorial autocratic regimes who reject their values of democratic debate,uncorrupted judiciary, rule of law, civil liberties, free association and  electoral competition in a pluralist environment that respects differences of opinion about how to govern ones society.

 People all over the world no matter their religion or culture, yearn for similar things and are guided by similar values: the opportunity to live at peace, earn a living that is materially adequate, raise a family, live in love and friendship and enjoy the fruits of life including the opportunity to participate in the governance of ones society. When these rights are denied systematically by autocratic personalities and authoritarian regimes it is only a matter of time before the regime will be challenged and eventually defeated, particularly if economic problems like high unemployment, poverty and social exclusion  become rampant.

Fifty-nine years to the day in January 1952 when the Egyptian  national revolution was sparked because of  British colonial excesses after the incident at Ismailia where British troops killed a number of Egyptian policemen, the daily series of mass protests organized initially by social network savvy young people  have convulsed Egypt and threatened to dethrone President Hosni Mubarak, the staunch ally of the West who despite the assasination of Anwar Sadat in 1981 has governed Egypt and protected the peace treaty with Israel and thereby contributed to peace in the Middle East and greater prosperity for the people of the region.

Mubarak, unfortunately despite these acts of friendship to the West has not learned the lessons of democracy. His regime has abused human rights, manipulated elections,undertaken torture of prisoners, allowed police abuses and not created enough jobs to ensure that growing prosperity is widely shared and youth unemployment kept low. The recent example of the Tunisian revolution has emboldened millions of ordinary Egyptians to publicly demand his resignation. But since
Islamic fundamentalism is understandably widely feared in the West and the Moslem brotherhood a powerful well organized force in Egyptian society, the U.S. and other western countries have been walking a tightrope trying on the one hand, to encourage President Mubarak  to leave office and make way for a transitional government prior to general elections and on the other, calling for stability, peaceful transition  and hoping for a continuance of the peaceful relations between Egypt and Israel.

The Brotherhood insists that it has changed into a peaceful organization that respects democracy and supports  civil rights and wishes to participate in a democratic revolution. But no one can guarantee that this will rermain true once they become, as they are likely to, a major player in the new order.  In addition in the past, according to some analysts, the Brotherhood has promoted crude anti-semitism in Egypt. So the dilemmas are real enough. The events in Egypt have a power and energy which is compelling. The fallout is bound to be substantial in both political and economic terms not just for Egypt but for Western economic stability as well.

 But history teaches us that we ignore the need for democracy and its destruction at our peril. One can only hope that this Zeitgeist as it sweeps through the Middle East will deliver peace , prosperity and progress rather than their negation.

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