Nov. 1, 2010 U.S. mid term elections tomorrow

Tomorrow, November 2, 2010 may see a major shift in political fortunes in the U.S. in their mid term elections.

 Mid term elections are traditionally with one or two exceptions harsh times for incumbent administrations. The President doesn't face re-election for another two years but a third of the Senate and all the members of the House of Representatives face re-election. If the polls are correct then the Republicans re-energized by their ultra right wing immoderate base of Tea Party people are going to be the big winners. They are expected to win as many as 50 plus additional seats in the House thereby gaining a majority there and possibly as many as seven or eight seats in the Senate cutting substantially into the current Democratic party senate majority. Despite a major last minute push by President Obama aided by former President Bill Clinton and Presidential First Lady Michelle Obama and hundreds of  1000s of volunteers across the country it still seems from the polls that the Republicans are poised to make major gains tomorrow, perhaps of historic proportions.

One of the most interesting and key races is between Harry Reid the majority Democratic leader in the Senate who is seeking his fifth term having first been elected to the Senate in 1986 after having been a member of the House from 1983 to 1987 and a former Lieutenant Governor of Nevada and a right wing Tea party supported Republican Sharron Angle who is a former member of the Nevada State Assembly and a teacher. Angle is supported by Phyllis Schlafly and a range of neo-cons and assorted tea baggers. She is a very controversial figure in Nevada politics renowned for her battles with a former governor of the state over taxation and the Nevada constitution. Some more moderate Republicans consider her too extreme and are instead supporting current Senator Harry Reid. Nevertheless, Angle has raised some 21.5 million dollars to support her campaign and currently has a narrow lead among likely voters in the polls despite refusing to talk to most of  the mainstream media during the campaign. Because Nevada suffers from 14 % unemployment and has many conservative voters  Reid is vulnerable.

Reid, on the other hand, has the backing of key figures in state politics and business dominated as it is in Nevada by the casinos and entertainment industry. Reid has an amazing life story of rising from humble and difficult circumstances to his commanding position in the Senate. He is also a Roosevelt style liberal Democrat who has backed progressive legislation throughout his career although he is  apparently a social conservative on issues like abortion and same sex marriage. He has a reputation for being a tough hardscrabble  grass roots based political fighter who is well organized with a strong political machine  and knows how to get his voters out. He lacks somewhat in charisma but he makes up for that in his command of the intricacies of elections and governance. If he loses it will be a major defeat for the Democrats.

 If he is able to turn back the tide of Tea Party Republicans and hold on to his seat this will bode well for the remainder of Obama's first term. There are excellent pieces by Nicholas Lemann in the October 25 th New Yorker on Reid versus Angle and on the lessons to be drawn from his potential defeat and the Republican gains by Robert Kuttner in the Huffington post. The polling data on Nevada and the mid term election in general  is well displayed in the New York Times. Finally, the New Republic has a very interesting guide to election night and the key races to watch as bell weathers of what is to come by the end of the count.

Nov. 3, 12:41 am CNN has just announced that
Harry Reid will defeat Sharron Angle in the Senate race in Nevada. His margin of victory 51 to 46 %. This is a major victory for the Democrats in an otherwise very bleak night for the House of Representatives and the Democratic party. It appears that the Republicans will capture 52 plus seats in the House but fortunately will be denied a comparable result in the Senate races.The Democrats will preserve their majority status in the Senate with a smaller margin than in 2008 but a majority nonetheless. Democratic senators like Harry Reid and Barbara Boxer in California have won re-election despite the Republican tide. They did so because they had strong grass roots support and a well organized machine to bring out the vote. Interestingly in both states the unemployment rate was far above the national average. So the basis of their victories need to be carefully analysed for clues that they will give to what might be an appropriate strategy in the future.

In California Jerry Brown a former Governor from decades before has won the governorship once again by decisively defeating his Republican opponent who spent a fortune on her unsuccessful campaign.

Nov.3, 3:34 p.m. both Harry Reid (Nevada)and Barbara Boxer(California) won solid victories in their Senate races and they join Democrat victors in Delaware and Connecticut against large spending Tea Party backed opponents to ensure that the Democrats preserved their majority in the Senate 51 to 47 with two more contests to be resolved in Colorado and Washington where there is a good chance that the Democrats will win both of these seats.(They did win them so the count is now Democrats 53 Republicans 47 in the Senate.) The House of Representatives so far has ended up with the Republicans taking a near record number of 60 seats from the Democrats and installing a Republican majority 239 to 185 with 11 seats still to be decided. So as President Obama has stated the Democrats got shellacked.

But there are still some saving graces for Democrats in the performance in the Senate and in the survival of a number of Democratic congressmen and women who were able to resist the surge toward the Republicans in a number of districts across the country. These include members in the northeast but also members in places like Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota,Missouri, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Arkansas, Virginia, West Virginia, North and South Carolina, Oklahoma,Ohio,Florida, Michigan, Indiana,Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and of course the west coast states of California, Washington and Oregon. This is probably the high point of Republican fortunes. Once the uncompromising Tea baggers get to Washington they will face some hard choices that are likely to tarnish their pristine reputation. The reality is if they wish to get things done they also will have to compromise and they have told their supporters they never will. The next two years will be very interesting.


www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/10/25/101025fa_fact_lemann

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

http://www.tnr.com/

http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/78890/a-lost-generation?page=0,0 (This is an excellent piece by John Judis  that is sharply critical of the Obama inner circle strategy and is rather pessimistic about the future consequences of these choices. It is well worth reading and thinking about.

The key problem in the next two years will be the fact that the pace of the recovery so far is too slow and too minimal to ensure a solid and steady drop in the rate of unemployment. Because the Tea Party people and many Republicans are opposed to government financed intervention to accelerate growth they will make it extremely difficult for the President and the Congress to pass appropriate additional stimulus measures that will be capable of creating faster growth and reduced unemployment. Simply slashing business taxes may be helpful but it is not likely that on its own this will be sufficient particularly if the Tea party and Republicans insist on immediate deficit reduction. The two goals are incompatible in the short run. )