U.S.mid term elections unemployment a factor ?

October 27, 2010

There are according to the New York Times some 19 states in which the incumbent senator stands in danger of losing his or her seat in the upcoming election. It is 

the conventional wisdom that the slow rate at which the unemployment rate has dropped since recovery in employment began almost a year ago is playing a big role in this election. According to the Times there are ten of these nineteen seats which lean Republican, while two lean Democratic and 7 are in play, meaning too close to call . 

Let us compare that list of states with a list of state unemployment rates that 

differ significantly from the U.S. average rate of 9.6 %. the list of these states is reproduced below courtesy of the U.S. Bureau of Labour statistics. 

Table A.  States with unemployment rates significantly differ-
ent from that of the U.S., September 2010, seasonally adjusted
State                |          Rate(p)
------
--------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------
United States (1) ...................|           9.6
                                     |         
Alaska ..............................|           7.8
Arkansas ............................|           7.7
California ..........................|          12.4
Colorado ............................|           8.2
Delaware ............................|           8.4
Florida .............................|          11.9
Hawaii ..............................|           6.3
Iowa ................................|           6.8
Kansas ..............................|           6.6
Louisiana ...........................|           7.8
                                     |         
Maine ...............................|           7.7
Maryland ............................|           7.5
Massachusetts .......................|           8.4
Michigan ............................|          13.0
Minnesota ...........................|           7.0
Montana .............................|           7.4
Nebraska ............................|           4.6
Nevada ..............................|          14.4
New Hampshire .......................|           5.5
New Mexico ..........................|           8.2
                                     |                   
New York ............................|           8.3
North Dakota ........................|           3.7
Oklahoma ............................|           6.9
Oregon ..............................|          10.6
Rhode Island ........................|          11.5
South Carolina ......................|          11.0
South Dakota ........................|           4.4
Texas ...............................|           8.1
Utah ................................|           7.5
Vermont .............................|           5.8
                                     |         
Virginia ............................|           6.8
Wisconsin ...........................|           7.8
Wyoming .............................|           6.8
--------------------------------------------------------------

States leaning Republican where the incumbent Senator up for re-electio is a 

Democrat.

Arkansas

Indiana

Wisconsin

In all three of these states unemployment is either at the national average, Indiana or 

below the average Arkansas at 7.7% and Wisconsin at 7.8 %.

The other 8 states already have a seated Republican Senator who is likely to hold the seat.These are New Hampshire, Florida, Alaska,Kentucky, Ohio,Louisiana,

Missouri, and Wisconsin.Of these, Florida has very elevated unemployment of 11.9 %, while New Hampshire is much lower at 5.5 %, Alaska lower at 7.8 %, Louisiana 

lower at 7.8 % and Wisconsin lower at 7.8%. 

The seven Senate races that are too close to call are all currently held by the 

Democrats. 

Of these only California and Nevada have rates of unemployment that are 

significantly higher than the national average. The others are Washington, 

Illinois, Pennsylvania, W.Virginia and Colorado. All but Colorado with an 

unemployment rate of 8.2 % have rates of unemployment close to the U.S. national 

average of 9.6 %. 

So when the results are announced next week it will be very interesting to examine them to see what role elevated unemployment played in the outcome. 

Of course, even at the national average it is quite likely that the rate of 

unemployment will be a consideration in the minds of voters, since the rate is as high as it is.

But other things being equal it is quite likely to play a bigger role in states 

like California and Nevada both of which suffer from very high unemployment.