September 5, 2008 11:07 am
The US bureau of Labour Statistics has released the unemploment data for August 2008. They show that the unemployment rate has risen from 5.7% in July to 6.1 % in August for all workers over the age of 16. The rate including discouraged workers is now 6.3 %. This means that unemployment has risen 1.4 % points above its base of 4.7 % one year ago.
Courtesy of the Bureau I have included historical monthly statistics on unemployment over the past ten years by three seperate measures below. These measures are total unemployment rate 16 years and over;unemployment 25 years and over and unemployment rates for full time workers 16 years and over. When we examine these tables certain facts are worth noting. First the unemployment rate for those 16 to 25 is always substantially higher than for those over 25. Second excluding part-time workers , many of whom are forced to work part-time even though they would like to work full time significantly lowers the rate. If we were to add into the full and part time rate discouraged workers we get a higher rate.
But most significantly if we examine the last time unemployment rose because of a major shock to the economy, in this case the recession of 2000 and the events of 9-11 it takes many months once the rate rises for it to regain its previous low. So for example the rate for all workers over 16, including part-time workers was 3.9 % in December 2001. It then began to rise and reached a peak in April 2002 of 5.9 %. which was 16 months later. It then dropped slightly and stayed stable at just below this rate for the next 6 months. However, it rose again in November and continued to rise for the next 8 months until it peaked at 6.3 % in June of 2003.
So once the unemployment rate is disturbed by a shock we can see at least from this past decade's experience it takes many months for it to stop rising in this case, 16 months the first episode and 7 months the second episode. The rate did not regain its previous low of 3.9 % despite the passage of more than 7 years. It came within half a percentage point when it fell to 4.4 % in December of 2006. So this time despite the presence of a significant but still on the small side fiscal stimulus and low real interest rates we should not expect unemployment to begin to fall for some months yet.
This is why a major program of infrastructure investment which would directly employ workers in the projects would be a good idea.Unemployment would stop rising and begin to fall faster and essential infrastructure repair, restoration and investment would take place.
All data courtesy of the
U.S. Department of Labor www.bls.gov
Bureau of Labor Statistics Newsroom
Data extracted on: September 5, 2008 (10:43:15 AM)
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Series Id: LNS14000000 Seasonal AdjustedSeries title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate Labor force status: Unemployment rate Type of data: Percent Age: 16 years and over
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1998 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4
1999 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0
2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7
2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0
2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4
2005 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.8
2006 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 5.0
2008 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.7 6.1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Series Id: LNS14000048Seasonal AdjustedSeries title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate - 25 yrs. & overLabor force status: Unemployment rateType of data: PercentAge: 25 years and over
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1998 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3
1999 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9
2000 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9
2001 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.5
2002 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8
2003 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.1 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.6
2004 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
2005 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.8 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.9
2006 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.5
2007 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.9
2008 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.9
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Series Id: LNS14100000Seasonal AdjustedSeries title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate Full-Time WorkersLabor force status: Unemployment rate of the full-time labor forceType of data: PercentAge: 16 years and over
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1998 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2
1999 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9
2000 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
2001 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.8
2002 5.8 5.9 5.8 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.1
2003 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4
2005 5.2 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.7
2006 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.4
2007 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.9
2008 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.7 6.2
Quick Links
Tools
At a Glance Tables
Economic News Releases
Databases & Tables
Maps
Calculators
Inflation
Location Quotient
Injury And Illness
Help
Help & Tutorials
A to Z Index
FAQs
Glossary
About BLS
Contact Us
Info
What's New
Careers @ BLS
Find It! DOL
Join our Mailing Lists
Privacy & Security
Linking & Copyright Information
Frequently Asked Questions | Freedom of Information Act | Customer Survey
bls.gov
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20212-0001
www.bls.gov | Telephone: (202) 691-5200 | Do you have a Data question?
No comments:
Post a Comment