Sunday March 16, 9:30 pm
The Fed has cuts its primary credit rate a further 25 basis points down to 3.25 %. The primary credit rate is the rate offered to banking institutions which borrow at its discount window who are in sound condition.These would include all the primary dealers who deal in US government securities and facilitate the Fed's execution of monetary policy.
And amazingly JPMorgan Chase with the backing of the Fed has bought what is left of Bear Stearns for just $2 a share. The Fed has underwritten the purchase by guaranteeing 30 billion dollars of debt.JP Morgan can exchange mortgage backed debt for treasury debt at cheap interest rates through the Fed's auction window.It has opened its window to investment banks generally in an effort to inject liquidity into the system.
Recall that Bear Stearns as recently as January 2007 was trading at $170 a share.( On Monday at 4:09 pm Bear Stearns' shares were selling at $4.87 a share.)
The Asian markets are falling, the dollar has fallen to 97 Yen and tomorrow morning's opening on Wall street should be interesting, to say the least.
The crisis and crash on Wall street and in the City has now claimed two banks,Northern Rock and Bear Stearns, several hedge funds as well as negatively affected the savings and home ownership of millions and we can safely assume it will be remembered for a long time to come regardless of what further transpires.
There are uncanny similarities to the crash and crisis of 1907 and 1929.
In 1907, the 1906 San Francisco earthquake,and the financial strains that it caused, followed by a failed attempt to excercise an ill considered bear squeeze play on stock short sellers of an obscure copper mining company and the collapse of a trust company and bank connected to the principal copper mine company shareholders resulted in a financial panic of epic proportions.
Only the intervention of J.P. Morgan backed by the American Government led to the bailout and reversal of the panic.
In 1929 the excessive speculation on the stock market and the enormous rise in stock prices associated with great bull market of the late 1920s plus the collapse of an over leveraged trading company that had engaged in pyramid selling of stock led to the great crash of 1929.
Despite the intervention of the Federal Reserve itself a creation of the dire circumstances of 1907, the crisis was not stabilized in time to prevent a prolonged depression.
This time the Fed has acted boldly and the US government as well. If leading central banks globally react sensibly with a bit of luck we ought to avoid a prolonged deep recession. But it will still take co-ordination , co-operation and dramatic intervention, including Keynes style policies.
It is intriguing and perhaps quite fitting that JPMorgan Chase should be playing such a constructive role. As far back as 1857, Pierpont Morgan's father Junius, the junior partner of George Peabody in the UK was bailed out of trouble by the Bank of England and Baring's bank during a banking crisis and cash squeeze brought on by a collapse in wheat prices at the end of the Crimean war. According to Ron Chernow, author of the House of Morgan, (1990, Touchstone p. 11)
Pierpont Morgan, then 20, never forgot this and acted accordingly in 1907. Now 151 years later the descendents of the House of Morgan along with the Federal Reserve and the American Government have intervened again to prevent disaster.
The degree of moral hazard can be assessed later. In the meantime the degree of mayhem dispelled is what counts.
Have a look at two excellent works:
Ron Chernow, The House of Morgan:An American Banking Dynasty and the Rise of Modern Finance
Robert Bruner &Sean Carr, The Panic of 1907:Lessons learned from the Market's Perfect Storm, John Wiley & Sons, 2007.
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