My blog explores the financial crash, the rediscovery of Keynes, the debate between Keynes and the monetarists, the laissez-faire school versus the Keynesian school , the state of modern macroeconomics, the problems of unemployment,economic growth,international trade, public debt and deficits and the issue of inflation versus deflation. It reviews and debates economic policy in North America, Europe and Asia.It also from time to time comments upon culture, cinema and politics.

Friday, October 15, 2010
Core Inflation(excluding energy and food) only 0.8% in U.S. Bernanke suggests more quantitative easing likely
U.S.Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has responded wisely to the latest inflation figures and the continued high unemployment by explaining to Fed watchers the high likelihood of a further major dose of quantitative easing. In the coming months it is very likely that the Fed will enter the bond markets to purchase more government bonds and short term paper to ensure that interest rates remain very close to zero in order to promote economic recovery and the maximum efficiency from the US government's stimulus. The strategy which I made central to my work on deficits and debt as monetary and fiscal tools for fighting a deep recession during the 1980s and early 1990s is designed to solve the problem of crowding out, encourage investors to enter the equity markets and entrepreneurs to undertake job creating investments and consumers to buy goods and services and thereby increase aggregate demand to lower the unemployment rate faster than is now occurring. While unemployment has dropped a little its rate of fall is far too slow to bring the rate down to reasonable levels in a short period of time. If the Congress were to pass a second substantial stimulus bill to reinforce the positive impact of further quantitative easing we would get a much better result. but in the absence of that initiative Bernanke is absolutely correct to embark on another major round of quantitative easing.
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With this second round of quantitative easing, we shall see the continued pushing down of interest rates (near record-low levels) and infusion of cash into the market which, according to Keynes' doctrine, should eventually increase lending and aggregate demand.
ReplyDeleteThough it may cost less to borrow in these times, it may be argued that investors will be loath to invest in a market so uncertain. However, it is impossible to tell what the human reaction will be, especially at the consumer level.
A recent article in the New York Times covers this quite well and explores the hidden side of economics: human action.
See what you may think.
The X Factor of Economics: People
-Yaël