Statistics Canada has reported the January 2008 unemployment numbers.At first blush they look improved with unemployment falling nationally to 5.8 % with Alberta at 3.2%, Manitoba at 3.8 % BC at 4.2 %, Ontario at 6.3 and Québec at 6.8 %.
The Canadian dollar rose in the exchange markets because traders are reckoning that the Bank of Canada will now not move to follow the US interest rate cuts so the Canadian dollar becomes more attractive because the 1 % spread will widen once the Fed cut rates further.
But one needs to drill into the data a little deeper. For example, the labour participation rate in Ontario has actually fallen this past month . It is now 67.9 % versus booming Alberta's rate of 74.5 %. The picture in Québec is even starker in terms of labour participation. The rate here is 65.8 % almost 2 % points lower than in Ontario.Thus to compare the Ontario and Québec economies on the employment front we need to standardize the participation rate to either the national average,67.7 %, the Ontario rate of 67.9 or the Alberta rate which is probably as close to true full employment as we can manage in Canada of 74.5 % .
Once we do this we then must adjust the unemployment rates accordingly.
So for example if we chose the Ontario base rate for the purposes of comparing Ontario and Québec, Québec's current rate would be 1.9 % higher than the nominal rate . That is 8.7 % unemployment which seems given what I know about Québec much closer to the real truth on the ground.
In the ideal world of full employment that we can see is possible in places like Manitoba and Alberta the rate in Québec adjusted to the Manitoba base would be given its 69.2 % participation rate, 9.2 % again far closer to the reality I see here in Québec.
If we chose Alberta as the base controversial but arguably defensible since this ought to be our target for prosperity, the Québec rate would have to be adjusted upwards by 8.7 % points for a whopping unemployment rate of 14.5 % a rate which seems excessive considering conditions on the ground but may actually reflect what is really going on here when one discovers the army of street beggars, homeless people and poor people who long ago have given up looking for work.
To the extent the fall in the participation rate is due to losses in manufacturing, the rise in the Canadian dollar will offer little comfort should the Bank of Canada resist interest rate cuts.
We shall see what next month's data will bring . But it is always important to look behind the headline rates to better understand what is happening.
The January report is reproduced below courtesy of Statistics Canada.
Friday, February 8, 2008
Labour Force Survey
January 2008Previous releaseEmployment grew by an estimated 46,000 in January, boosting the employment rate to a record high (63.8%). These gains pushed the unemployment rate back down to 5.8%, matching the 33-year low reported in October 2007.
With January's gains, employment growth over the past 12 months was estimated at 337,000 (+2.0%).
Employment growth in January was wholly attributable to an increase in full time. Over the last 12 months, full-time work has grown at nearly double the rate of part time.
Gains in January were widespread across a number of industries, most notably in professional, scientific and technical services and in construction. Overall employment gains were tempered by decreases in information, culture and recreation as well as in retail and wholesale trade.
In January, the number of employees in the private sector jumped by 77,000. Despite this increase, the number of private sector employees was only 0.7% higher than a year earlier.
Employment increased in several provinces in January. Building on strong growth in recent months, Alberta, British Columbia and Newfoundland and Labrador attained record employment rates in January.
In Quebec, the unemployment rate fell to a 33-year low of 6.8% in January.
Wage growth remained vigorous in January, with a year-over-year increase in average hourly wages estimated at 4.9% for the second consecutive month. This was well above the most recent increase of 2.4% in consumer prices. January also marked the sixth consecutive month with a year-over-year increase in hourly wages at or above 4%.
Note to readers
Seasonally adjusted estimates from the Labour Force Survey have been revised using the latest seasonal factors, going back three years (January 2005 onwards). They are now available on CANSIM (tables 282-0087 to 282-0094).
Employment growth was spread across several sectors
Employment growth in January was spread across a number of industries in both the goods and service sectors.
In the goods-producing sector, gains were recorded in construction (+20,000); manufacturing (+18,000); agriculture (+14,000) and utilities (+6,000). Following an increase in December, employment in natural resources declined in January (-13,000) to a level similar to that of January 2007.
In the service sector in January, substantial increases were observed in professional, scientific and technical services (+30,000); finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (+16,000) and "other services" (+16,000). These gains were offset by declines in information, culture and recreation (-28,000) and trade (-27,000).
Over the past 12 months, employment growth was strongest in construction; professional, scientific and technical services; public administration; transportation and warehousing and "other services."
Although manufacturing employment edged up in January, over the past 12 months it was down by 113,000 (-5.4%), with most of the declines in Ontario and Quebec.
Public sector takes a breather
Public sector employment was unchanged in January for the third consecutive month. This pause follows sizeable gains, which pushed employment in this sector up an estimated 6.2% over the past 12 months. By comparison, self-employment grew 2.6% during the same period, while growth among private sector employees was a meagre 0.7%.
Labour market still robust in the West
British Columbia's employment increase in January (+12,000), all in full time, was spread across several industries. In the past 12 months, British Columbia's employment growth (+2.4%) was above that of the national average. The employment rate reached a record high of 63.9%.
Alberta's still-flourishing labour market continued to beat records. January's increase in employment, while slight, was enough to raise the province's employment rate to a new record high (72.1%). In the past 12 months, employment gains have been strongest in trade; health care and social assistance and public administration.
Employment in Manitoba increased by an estimated 3,000 in January, pushing the unemployment rate down to 3.8%, its lowest level since June 2006. This was the second lowest rate in Canada, after Alberta (3.2%). Employment gains in Manitoba over the past 12 months (+2.0%) were entirely in full-time work.
In Ontario, a slight increase in employment brought the unemployment rate down 0.2 percentage points to 6.3% in January. Employment growth over the last 12 months (+1.5%) was below the national average, with gains in a number of service industries tempered by losses in manufacturing, as well as accommodation and food services. In January, accommodation and food services posted its fourth decline in as many months.
Quebec's unemployment rate declined 0.2 percentage points to 6.8% in January, its lowest level in 33 years. While historically much higher than Ontario's rate, Quebec's unemployment rate has fallen substantially since August 2003. As a result, the gap between the unemployment rates for the two provinces has been less than one percentage point for nearly a year. In the past 12 months, the employment increase of 87,000 in Quebec (+2.3%) has been driven primarily by growth in construction; transportation and warehousing; and accommodation and food services.
Following modest growth in December, Newfoundland and Labrador added an estimated 4,000 workers in January. With this increase, the province attained a record employment rate of 52.5% for the month.
An aging labour force
In January, the largest employment gains were among women aged 55 and over (+20,000) and men 25 to 54 (+25,000).
In the past year, employment has increased 10 times faster among older workers aged 55 and over (+8.0%) than among workers aged 25 to 54 (+0.8%). Older workers have captured a large share of employment gains, owing in part to the growth of this group within an aging Canadian population and in part to the steady rise in their employment rate since 1997.
Note: The Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates are based on a sample, and are therefore subject to sampling variability. Estimates for smaller geographic areas or industries will have more variability. For an explanation of sampling variability of estimates, and how to use standard errors to assess this variability, consult the "Data quality" section of the publication Labour Force Information (71-001-XWE, free).
Available on CANSIM: tables 282-0001 to 282-0042, 282-0047 to 282-0064 and 282-0069 to 282-0099.
Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 3701.
A more detailed summary, Labour Force Information (71-001-XWE, free) is now available online for the week ending January 19. From the Publications module of our website, under Free Internet publications, choose Labour. LAN and bulk prices are available on request. The CD-ROM Labour Force Historical Review, 2007 (71F0004XCB, $209) will be available February 19.
Data tables are also now available online. From the By Subject module of our website, choose Labour.
The next release of the Labour Force Survey will be on March 7.
For general information or to order data, contact Client Services (toll-free 1-866-873-8788; 613-951-4090; labour@statcan.ca). To enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Vincent Ferrao (613-951-4750) or Jeannine Usalcas (613-951-4720), Labour Statistics Division.
Labour force characteristics by age and sex
December 2007 January 2008 December 2007 to January 2008 January 2007 to January 2008 December 2007 to January 2008 January 2007 to January 2008
Seasonally adjusted
thousands change in thousands % change
Both sexes 15+
Population 26,719.5 26,751.8 32.3 359.5 0.1 1.4
Labour force 18,090.2 18,109.5 19.3 287.7 0.1 1.6
Employment 17,012.5 17,058.9 46.4 336.5 0.3 2.0
Full-time 13,914.6 13,978.9 64.3 300.7 0.5 2.2
Part-time 3,097.9 3,080.0 -17.9 35.8 -0.6 1.2
Unemployment 1,077.6 1,050.6 -27.0 -48.8 -2.5 -4.4
Participation rate 67.7 67.7 0.0 0.2 ... ...
Unemployment rate 6.0 5.8 -0.2 -0.4 ... ...
Employment rate 63.7 63.8 0.1 0.4 ... ...
Part-time rate 18.2 18.1 -0.1 -0.1 ... ...
Youths 15 to 24
Population 4,366.8 4,367.8 1.0 26.6 0.0 0.6
Labour force 2,931.6 2,926.1 -5.5 39.1 -0.2 1.4
Employment 2,605.5 2,605.2 -0.3 55.2 0.0 2.2
Full-time 1,421.9 1,452.9 31.0 33.4 2.2 2.4
Part-time 1,183.7 1,152.4 -31.3 21.9 -2.6 1.9
Unemployment 326.0 320.9 -5.1 -16.1 -1.6 -4.8
Participation rate 67.1 67.0 -0.1 0.5 ... ...
Unemployment rate 11.1 11.0 -0.1 -0.7 ... ...
Employment rate 59.7 59.6 -0.1 0.9 ... ...
Part-time rate 45.4 44.2 -1.2 -0.1 ... ...
Men 25+
Population 10,920.7 10,936.5 15.8 166.1 0.1 1.5
Labour force 8,088.1 8,102.0 13.9 145.1 0.2 1.8
Employment 7,660.2 7,691.5 31.3 155.4 0.4 2.1
Full-time 7,165.3 7,186.8 21.5 169.5 0.3 2.4
Part-time 494.9 504.7 9.8 -14.2 2.0 -2.7
Unemployment 427.9 410.5 -17.4 -10.3 -4.1 -2.4
Participation rate 74.1 74.1 0.0 0.2 ... ...
Unemployment rate 5.3 5.1 -0.2 -0.2 ... ...
Employment rate 70.1 70.3 0.2 0.3 ... ...
Part-time rate 6.5 6.6 0.1 -0.3 ... ...
Women 25+
Population 11,432.0 11,447.5 15.5 166.8 0.1 1.5
Labour force 7,070.5 7,081.3 10.8 103.4 0.2 1.5
Employment 6,746.8 6,762.1 15.3 125.9 0.2 1.9
Full-time 5,327.4 5,339.2 11.8 97.8 0.2 1.9
Part-time 1,419.4 1,422.9 3.5 28.1 0.2 2.0
Unemployment 323.7 319.1 -4.6 -22.6 -1.4 -6.6
Participation rate 61.8 61.9 0.1 0.0 ... ...
Unemployment rate 4.6 4.5 -0.1 -0.4 ... ...
Employment rate 59.0 59.1 0.1 0.3 ... ...
Part-time rate 21.0 21.0 0.0 0.0 ... ...
... not applicable
Note: Related CANSIM table 282-0087.
Employment by class of worker and industry (based on NAICS)1
December 2007 January 2008 December 2007 to January 2008 January 2007 to January 2008 December 2007 to January 2008 January 2007 to January 2008
Seasonally adjusted
thousands change in thousands % change
Class of worker
Employees 14,369.8 14,442.6 72.8 269.9 0.5 1.9
Self-employed 2,642.7 2,616.3 -26.4 66.7 -1.0 2.6
Public/private sector employees
Public 3,400.5 3,396.7 -3.8 196.9 -0.1 6.2
Private 10,969.3 11,045.9 76.6 73.0 0.7 0.7
All industries 17,012.5 17,058.9 46.4 336.5 0.3 2.0
Goods-producing sector 3,968.7 4,012.8 44.1 -18.7 1.1 -0.5
Agriculture 327.6 341.8 14.2 -6.3 4.3 -1.8
Natural resources 354.4 341.5 -12.9 -6.7 -3.6 -1.9
Utilities 140.8 146.5 5.7 22.5 4.0 18.1
Construction 1,163.4 1,182.9 19.5 85.1 1.7 7.8
Manufacturing 1,982.5 2,000.0 17.5 -113.4 0.9 -5.4
Service-producing sector 13,043.8 13,046.1 2.3 355.2 0.0 2.8
Trade 2,706.4 2,679.9 -26.5 31.3 -1.0 1.2
Transportation and warehousing 854.9 855.0 0.1 52.6 0.0 6.6
Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing 1,064.3 1,080.5 16.2 34.5 1.5 3.3
Professional, scientific and technical services 1,153.3 1,183.5 30.2 64.7 2.6 5.8
Business, building and other support services 712.2 706.5 -5.7 5.1 -0.8 0.7
Educational services 1,196.3 1,198.3 2.0 21.9 0.2 1.9
Health care and social assistance 1,870.6 1,874.5 3.9 42.9 0.2 2.3
Information, culture and recreation 795.9 768.3 -27.6 7.1 -3.5 0.9
Accommodation and food services 1,049.4 1,038.5 -10.9 -20.2 -1.0 -1.9
Other services 737.3 753.5 16.2 42.5 2.2 6.0
Public administration 903.2 907.6 4.4 72.7 0.5 8.7
1. North American Industry Classification System.
Note: Related to CANSIM tables 282-0088 and 282-0089.
Labour force characteristics by province
December 2007 January 2008 December 2007 to January 2008 January 2007 to January 2008 December 2007 to January 2008 January 2007 to January 2008
Seasonally adjusted
thousands change in thousands % change
Newfoundland and Labrador
Population 424.5 424.9 0.4 -1.2 0.1 -0.3
Labour force 250.2 254.0 3.8 -0.2 1.5 -0.1
Employment 218.8 223.1 4.3 7.6 2.0 3.5
Full-time 188.6 190.1 1.5 6.9 0.8 3.8
Part-time 30.2 33.0 2.8 0.6 9.3 1.9
Unemployment 31.4 30.9 -0.5 -7.8 -1.6 -20.2
Participation rate 58.9 59.8 0.9 0.1 ... ...
Unemployment rate 12.5 12.2 -0.3 -3.0 ... ...
Employment rate 51.5 52.5 1.0 1.9 ... ...
Prince Edward Island
Population 113.8 113.8 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.9
Labour force 77.5 78.4 0.9 0.0 1.2 0.0
Employment 69.2 70.1 0.9 -0.1 1.3 -0.1
Full-time 57.9 58.4 0.5 0.3 0.9 0.5
Part-time 11.3 11.7 0.4 -0.4 3.5 -3.3
Unemployment 8.3 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
Participation rate 68.1 68.9 0.8 -0.6 ... ...
Unemployment rate 10.7 10.6 -0.1 0.1 ... ...
Employment rate 60.8 61.6 0.8 -0.6 ... ...
Nova Scotia
Population 765.8 766.1 0.3 2.6 0.0 0.3
Labour force 490.2 488.6 -1.6 1.8 -0.3 0.4
Employment 452.3 452.2 -0.1 4.1 0.0 0.9
Full-time 366.7 366.2 -0.5 -1.8 -0.1 -0.5
Part-time 85.6 86.1 0.5 6.0 0.6 7.5
Unemployment 38.0 36.4 -1.6 -2.3 -4.2 -5.9
Participation rate 64.0 63.8 -0.2 0.0 ... ...
Unemployment rate 7.8 7.4 -0.4 -0.5 ... ...
Employment rate 59.1 59.0 -0.1 0.3 ... ...
New Brunswick
Population 615.3 615.7 0.4 4.3 0.1 0.7
Labour force 397.8 397.9 0.1 10.0 0.0 2.6
Employment 366.6 365.1 -1.5 7.9 -0.4 2.2
Full-time 311.1 313.3 2.2 12.4 0.7 4.1
Part-time 55.5 51.8 -3.7 -4.4 -6.7 -7.8
Unemployment 31.2 32.8 1.6 2.1 5.1 6.8
Participation rate 64.7 64.6 -0.1 1.2 ... ...
Unemployment rate 7.8 8.2 0.4 0.3 ... ...
Employment rate 59.6 59.3 -0.3 0.9 ... ...
Quebec
Population 6,340.2 6,345.4 5.2 56.5 0.1 0.9
Labour force 4,174.8 4,176.2 1.4 57.7 0.0 1.4
Employment 3,884.3 3,891.5 7.2 87.2 0.2 2.3
Full-time 3,149.2 3,173.3 24.1 72.4 0.8 2.3
Part-time 735.1 718.2 -16.9 14.8 -2.3 2.1
Unemployment 290.5 284.7 -5.8 -29.5 -2.0 -9.4
Participation rate 65.8 65.8 0.0 0.3 ... ...
Unemployment rate 7.0 6.8 -0.2 -0.8 ... ...
Employment rate 61.3 61.3 0.0 0.8 ... ...
... not applicable
Note: Related CANSIM table 282-0087.
Labour force characteristics by province
December 2007 January 2008 December 2007 to January 2008 January 2007 to January 2008 December 2007 to January 2008 January 2007 to January 2008
Seasonally adjusted
thousands change in thousands % change
Ontario
Population 10,426.4 10,439.4 13.0 137.9 0.1 1.3
Labour force 7,095.2 7,092.9 -2.3 92.5 0.0 1.3
Employment 6,630.9 6,643.8 12.9 95.2 0.2 1.5
Full-time 5,445.6 5,455.9 10.3 102.9 0.2 1.9
Part-time 1,185.3 1,188.0 2.7 -7.6 0.2 -0.6
Unemployment 464.3 449.1 -15.2 -2.7 -3.3 -0.6
Participation rate 68.1 67.9 -0.2 -0.1 ... ...
Unemployment rate 6.5 6.3 -0.2 -0.2 ... ...
Employment rate 63.6 63.6 0.0 0.0 ... ...
Manitoba
Population 903.2 904.2 1.0 9.9 0.1 1.1
Labour force 625.3 626.1 0.8 6.9 0.1 1.1
Employment 599.1 602.3 3.2 11.7 0.5 2.0
Full-time 488.0 489.7 1.7 12.1 0.3 2.5
Part-time 111.1 112.6 1.5 -0.4 1.4 -0.4
Unemployment 26.2 23.9 -2.3 -4.7 -8.8 -16.4
Participation rate 69.2 69.2 0.0 0.0 ... ...
Unemployment rate 4.2 3.8 -0.4 -0.8 ... ...
Employment rate 66.3 66.6 0.3 0.6 ... ...
Saskatchewan
Population 758.0 759.8 1.8 12.8 0.2 1.7
Labour force 525.9 526.1 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.1
Employment 504.7 505.7 1.0 2.0 0.2 0.4
Full-time 412.7 413.5 0.8 4.7 0.2 1.1
Part-time 91.9 92.2 0.3 -2.6 0.3 -2.7
Unemployment 21.2 20.4 -0.8 -1.3 -3.8 -6.0
Participation rate 69.4 69.2 -0.2 -1.1 ... ...
Unemployment rate 4.0 3.9 -0.1 -0.2 ... ...
Employment rate 66.6 66.6 0.0 -0.8 ... ...
Alberta
Population 2,769.5 2,773.0 3.5 69.9 0.1 2.6
Labour force 2,059.8 2,066.4 6.6 67.5 0.3 3.4
Employment 1,993.8 1,999.9 6.1 67.5 0.3 3.5
Full-time 1,677.9 1,684.8 6.9 52.2 0.4 3.2
Part-time 315.9 315.1 -0.8 15.2 -0.3 5.1
Unemployment 66.0 66.6 0.6 0.2 0.9 0.3
Participation rate 74.4 74.5 0.1 0.6 ... ...
Unemployment rate 3.2 3.2 0.0 -0.1 ... ...
Employment rate 72.0 72.1 0.1 0.6 ... ...
British Columbia
Population 3,602.7 3,609.5 6.8 65.8 0.2 1.9
Labour force 2,393.5 2,402.9 9.4 50.8 0.4 2.2
Employment 2,292.9 2,305.2 12.3 53.4 0.5 2.4
Full-time 1,816.5 1,833.1 16.6 37.9 0.9 2.1
Part-time 476.5 472.1 -4.4 15.5 -0.9 3.4
Unemployment 100.6 97.7 -2.9 -2.6 -2.9 -2.6
Participation rate 66.4 66.6 0.2 0.2 ... ...
Unemployment rate 4.2 4.1 -0.1 -0.2 ... ...
Employment rate 63.6 63.9 0.3 0.4 ... ...
... not applicable
Note: Related CANSIM table 282-0087
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